The Ebb and Flow of Nations

Country growth prospects change over time. We took a look at which countries today have higher or lower growth expectations compared to two years ago.

We used C-GIDD forecasts from April 2012 and compared them with April 2014 forecasts for 2013-2017. Over the past two years, the global growth expectation fell by 0.7% from 4.5% to 3.8% annually. South America’s growth forecast fell 1.3% and Asia’s fell 0.9%. Other continents had minor reductions.

Which major countries have the highest over- or underperformance compared to what was expected two years ago? Among countries with GDP larger than PPP$ 100 billion, only 2 have been upgraded by more than 1% annually, while 16 have been downgraded by more than 1%.

Notable is that China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa all have significant downgrades (Ukraine is currently not forecasted, but would make the list).

Population Pyramid